The Shift: How The NCAA Transfer Portal Is Rewriting the Playbook For High School Prospects

The NCAA Transfer Portal was introduced with the goal of empowering college athletes to take control of their futures—and in many ways, it’s done exactly that. But as someone who’s been boots-on-the-ground in the AAU and grassroots basketball trenches for decades, I can tell you: the ripple effect has been seismic, especially for high school kids outside the Top 100 rankings.

Let’s talk truth.

The Portal Era Is Here—and It’s Packed

As of today, we’re looking at 1,345 Division I women’s players in the portal. That’s not counting DII, DIII, or JUCO. Programs are now using the portal as their first recruiting stop. Why?

Because coaches want players who are older, stronger, seasoned, and proven.

Think about it: Would you take a 17-year-old who needs two years of development, or a 21-year-old who’s already played 60 college games?

The answer is clear—and high school prospects feel it.

Who’s Really at Risk?

The top-tier, Top-100 prospects? They’re fine. They still have leverage, options, and visibility.

But for the unranked, the underexposed, the late bloomers, and the fringe mid-major kids, the margin for error just got thinner than ever.

Scholarships that would’ve gone to that “project” guard or that “raw but athletic” wing are now going to portal kids with stat sheets and highlight tapes in real college jerseys.

And if we’re being real, some coaches are using the portal to patch misses in high school recruiting instead of developing their freshmen. It’s business now—less about projection, more about production.

What This Means for Live Periods

Live periods used to be where the magic happened. College coaches lined the baseline, scribbling notes, calling assistants, evaluating kids in real time. That’s still happening—but the energy has changed.

Now, they’re evaluating with portal context.

Is this kid better than who’s in the portal right now?

Can this 16-year-old help us more than a 20-year-old transfer from the Big Ten who’s already played in March Madness?

If not, they’ll keep it pushing.

We’ve spoken directly with several college coaches across the country, and many of them aren’t even planning to attend the first initial NCAA viewing periods. Some feel there’s simply no urgent need—they’re prioritizing the portal. Others are tied up hosting official visits for transfers or 2025 commits. And for a few programs, it’s an economic decision—why spend money traveling to scout high schoolers when you can pull game film and analytics on players already in college? This shift is real, and it’s another reason why the high school recruiting window has gotten tighter and more competitive than ever.

What Players and Parents Need to Know

Here’s the hard truth: If you’re not ranked, not viral, not on a circuit team, not on a independent that has a tradition of successfully moving players on to the next level, then you need a plan besides just showing up and hoping for the best.

• You need real exposure—not fake promotion.

• You need someone advocating for you to real decision-makers.

• You need development, visibility, and guidance.

That’s what we do at Gems In The Gym. This isn’t a vanity platform. This is legacy work.

We consult families, we scout relentlessly, and we place players in situations where they can win on and off the court.

Because in this new landscape, it’s not just about being good—it’s about being prepared, positioned, and seen.

What’s Next for the Game?

If this trend continues, the game will split:

• The elite go to Power 5 schools straight from high school.

• The rest go JUCO, DII, or prep, then try to transfer up.

That’s not inherently bad, but it requires a mindset shift.

You’re not just competing against your peers anymore—you’re competing against players already in college. And those players want your spot right now.

Coaches are adjusting. Programs are adjusting. Players and parents must adjust, too.

So what can you do?

Lock in. Get in the gym. Ask better questions. Be coachable.

And most importantly, surround yourself with people who understand this game at every level.